(11.03.2022, 21:08)Nightwatch schrieb: Zum einen fehlt es da in der Ukraine aktuell einfach an sehr vielen Basics, ein paar Eliteverbände hin oder her, zum anderen hätte alleine ein voll mobilisiertes polnisches Heer eine deutlich höhere Feuerkraft als die Ukraine. Ich seh da nicht, wie da etwas anderes als ein sehr grandioser Untergang hätte rauskommen sollen. Nach dem Ukrainekrieg stellt sich die Frage sowieso nicht, die werden viele Jahre brauchen um ihre Armee halbwegs zu renovieren, wenn sie überhaupt die Mittel dafür aufbringen können.

(11.03.2022, 21:33)lime schrieb: Berufsarmeen sind nicht tauglich echte große Kriege zu führen. ...: man braucht auch in Zukunft zwingend die Wehrpflicht.

(11.03.2022, 21:40)Broensen schrieb: Oder die Gegner haben auch nur Berufsarmeen und man verzichtet einfach auf echte große Kriege.

(11.03.2022, 21:33)lime schrieb: Den Jubel halte ich für verfrüht. Leider ist das irgendwie typisch heutzutage von einem Extrem ins Andere. Erst geht man davon aus dass Rußland das Baltikum und Polen in wenigen Tagen/Wochen aufrollen könnte und nun meint man dass Rußland gar nichts mehr gebacken bekommt. Meines Erachtens kann man dies aus den 14 Tagen Krieg in der Ukraine nicht ablesen. Allein weil der Krieg zumindest bisher so geführt wurde dass man zivile Opfer in Grenzen halten möchte. Dies wäre bei einer Konfrontation mit Polen sicher nicht gegeben, im Baltikum vielleicht noch wegen der großen russischen Minderheiten. Dann ist das Terrain in der Ukraine auch "spezieller" als in Polen.
Was man aber jetzt schon ablesen kann ist dass man bei der NATO und Rußland hat sich in den letzten 20 Jahren in eine ähnliche Richtung entwickelt viel zu wenig auf Masse setzt. Berufsarmeen sind nicht tauglich echte große Kriege zu führen. Was ich eigentlich schon immer so formuliert habe: man braucht auch in Zukunft zwingend die Wehrpflicht. Außer man hat eine strategische Position wie die USA, GB oder Japan.

Zitat:Mystery drone from Ukraine war crashes in Croatia

People in Croatia's capital Zagreb were rudely awakened to the Ukraine conflict when a military drone crashed in the city late last night.

There was an explosion in the southwestern Jarun district shortly after 23:00 (22:00 GMT). Residents found a crater and wreckage scattered close to student accommodation. Zagreb's mayor Tomislav Tomasevic said "it's amazing that no-one was injured". [...]

Witness reports suggested the only person hurt was a man who fell off his bicycle as the drone hit the ground. Markings on the debris included Cyrillic lettering and a five-pointed star. Local experts said these suggested that the drone was a Soviet-era TU-141 reconnaissance aircraft. Despite the drone's vintage, it has been deployed by the Ukrainian military both in 2014 and during the current conflict.

Croatian media have been speculating about its origin. Although Ukraine's embassy in Zagreb declined to comment, the Jutarnji List website quoted an adviser to Ukraine's defence ministry denying that it was their responsibility. The mayor said the incident was unprecedented for Zagreb, a city some 570km (355 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

Zitat:Hilft halt dann auch nix wenn man dann im Schlamm feststeckt.
Infanterie scheint bei der Aktion keine Lust gehabt zu haben. Plus keinerlei Luftunterstützung und null Luftabwehr.

Das einzige Positive für die Russen is da wohl, das die Ukrainer dort offensichtlich nur über sehr beschränkte Feuerkraft verfügt haben, sonst hätte es noch ganz anders ausgehen können.
Mehr als das Nötigste wurde da nicht gemacht.

Zitat:+++ Live Updates +++

Ukraine-Russia live updates: Russia says Western arms shipments now 'legitimate' military targets

Russia warns Western arms shipments are now "legitimate" military targets; Putin's forces advance on the capital as fighting rages and besieged cities are bombarded; Ukraine says humanitarian corridors are being threatened by "constant shelling".

Zitat:WAR IN UKRAINE

Kremlin arrests FSB chiefs in fallout from Ukraine chaos

The defenestration of several senior spies is a sign of Putin’s growing fury towards the intelligence services. [...] Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch, was arrested with Anatoly Bolyukh, his deputy, according to a leading expert on the Russian security services.

Andrei Soldatov, who is co-founder and editor of Agentura, an investigative website that monitors the FSB and other agencies, said that sources from within FSB had confirmed the detention of both men.

Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled Russian human rights activist, also confirmed the arrests. He added that FSB officers had carried out searches at more than 20 addresses around Moscow of colleagues suspected of being in contact.

(12.03.2022, 14:43)Schneemann schrieb: Gibt auch schon erste Gerüchte, dass erste Generäle gefeuert wurden.

Schneemann

(12.03.2022, 14:43)Schneemann schrieb: Seltsamer Vorfall, und stellt sich natürlich auch die Frage, inwieweit hier noch mehr herumschwirrt - und eine Gefahr darstellt. Und man kann auch fragen, wo da die Luftraumbeobachtung war, wenn eine mehr als sieben Meter lange und über 40 Jahre alte Drohne fast 600 km unbemerkt quer durch Europa fliegt...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60709952

Zum Gerät - siehe hier: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolew_M-141
Schneemann

Zitat: Ist es noch "normal", dass inzwischen vom 3. getöteten General die Rede ist?

Zitat:Hier werden Basics nicht mal im Ansatz beherzigt, ist nun halt die Frage, ob das eine Ausnahme war oder ob man wirklich einfach derart sorglos herumfährt.

(12.03.2022, 22:29)Nightwatch schrieb: Ich kann mir irgendwie nicht vorstellen, dass die eingeschlossenen Kräfte in Mariupol den konzentrierten Angriffrn standhalten könntn. Die Stadt ist schwer zu verteidigen weil ausgestreckt an der Küste gelegen und vom Delta des Kalmius durchzogen. Es wäre verhältnismäßig einfach möglich die einzelnen Stadtteile voneinander zu isolieren. Den Verteidigern dürfte dabei über kurz oder lang schlicht die Munition ausgehen, Waffenlieferungen waren ja zu keinem Zeitpunkt nach Kriegsbeginn möglich.

Am Rande: 44% der Bevölkerung Mariupols sind Russen.

Zitat:Gesamtkarte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502528320369569792/photo/1

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 16: Russian forces initiate an operational pause to refit and reorganize after failed attempts to encircle Kyiv. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes and hold key cities of Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Mikolaiyv.

2/ A few updates of note to the overall Theater of War graphic. Internally displace persons are now indicated. An estimated casualty table has been reintroduced and notes the differences of reporting among various sources.

3/ Humanitarian Impact. UN sources report more than 2.5 million refugees have now fled Ukraine. Another 1.8 million persons are displaced in Ukraine. Indiscriminate attacks of civilians continue to mount. Mariupol suffers over 1,500 killed since start of siege.

4/ Weather assessment. Improved visibility and wind speed throughout Ukraine will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Freezing temperatures and snow showers hamper tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance.

Karte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502528863175389186/photo/1

5/ Kyiv AO assessment. Russian attacks made no gains from 8-10 March. Most operations conducted on 11 March consisted of raids and reconnaissance according to the Ukrainians. Operations against Nizhyn have remained stalled for at least a week.

Karte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502529080859705347/photo/1

6/ Northeast AO assessment. Counterattacks in NE Kyiv and the Chernihiv-Nizhyn area have yielded important gains for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to struggle with securing multiple lines of communication. A major attack on Sumy is highly likely.

Karte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502529222656638979/photo/1

7/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. Russian & Separatist forces continue to make incremental gains, most notably north of Mariupol. The Russians are assessed not to have enough combat power to seize Mariupol, they will continue to shell the city into submission.

Karte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1502529440642912257/photo/1

8/ The Southern AO assessment. An advance on Mikolalyv remains the focus of Russian operations; however, poor weather conditions (snow and below -10 C) is exacerbating low morale caused by poor logistical support and heavy combat loses.

9/ Aerospace Assessment. The VKS launched new air and missile strikes against targets in western and central Ukraine (Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr, and Dnipro). Targets appeared to be airfields and command nodes; however civilian targets were also hit.

10/ The UAF remains effective against VKS sorties, degrading an already lackluster air-ground integration support of Russian ground forces by close air support sorties. Ukraine continues to press the west for more sophisticated ADA systems.

11/ Electromagnetic Sphere. Russian communications continued to be challenged. It is becoming clear from captured equipment that VDV units are generally outfitted with encrypted radios while most units have to rely on unencrypted HF radios or cell phones.

12/ Captured Russian Soldiers cite their frustration with the lack of proper long-range communication equipment, stating that forward units easily become cutoff from headquarters rendering them directionless, prone to becoming lost, and unsupported.

13/ Information War. The Russian populace remains largely susceptible to state media propaganda. Russian citizens do want to know what is going on, but they walk a fine line between wanting to know the truth and act on it and avoiding repression or arrest.

14/ But the reality of the cost of the war, both economically and physically (as large numbers of dead Russian Soldiers return home), is placing strain on Putin’s state-media machine to illicit compliance and obedience to the Kremlin’s war narrative.

15/ Russian Foreign Fighters. As Russian forces struggle to press reservists into forward units, Putin has stated Russia will accept and aid foreign volunteers of their own (mainly Syrian) into the fight to counter western mercenaries.

16/ It is highly likely that Syrian Arab Army (SAA) units may deploy to Ukraine. Such a move would open the doorway for various Russian proxy-forces to be brought into active combat against Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of brutal urban combat.

17/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian equipment losses are harder to assess, as there is a lack of information regarding these losses compared to Russian. Ukrainian equipment fall victim to capture as well, and aid Russian forces to replenish losses.

18/ Russian Overall Assessment. Russian forces still struggle to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. These challenges are systemic, small units still display poor employment of tactics while commander’s struggle with control of maneuver.

19/ Russia seems increasingly likely to place intense pressure on Belarus to become an active participate in the conflict rather than a logistics hub. Likewise, Russian claims of Ukrainian WMDs signals Russia’s intent on employing these types of weapons.

20/ Putin is looking to radically alter the psychogeography of the current conflict to sow doubt in Ukraine’s incredible conviction that they can resist the Russian invasion with their current level of resistance. By raising the cost, he hopes to crush Ukraine’s will.

21/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian government feels it has turned an important strategic corner in surviving the initial Russian onslaught and sees a path toward victory. Battlefield realities support this assessment.

22/ What remains to be seen is if Ukrainian conviction in victory can hold past a WMD attack and the introduction of Russian foreign fighters into combat. This sustainment of Ukraine’s will to resist will be strenuously tested in the aftermath of Russian WMD attacks.

23/ The Moral Sphere. It is important to remember that war is won or lost in the heart and the mind. Moral is a link between will and action, it animates the human element in a concentrated direction with determination to achieve a goal.

24/ This is the controlling force of military action which guides organized movement, the endurance to withstand hardships, and influence’s purpose field commanders and national leaders imbue to inspire confidence in success. Moral victory is the keystone of total victory.