Russland vs. Ukraine

[Tiger]

Die russischen Streitkräfte an der Grenze zur Ukraine sind nicht ausreichend, um auch nur die östliche Ukraine zu halten, geschweige denn um nach Kiev oder Moldawien vorzurücken:
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Could Russia Defeat a Ukrainian Insurgency?
The 40,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border are not enough for an extended campaign

There’s no doubt the Russian military has the means to invade mainland Ukraine. But whether it can hold conquered territory is another question—especially if Kiev puts up a fight.

That’s the conclusion of the Swedish Defense Research Agency, Stockholm’s government-funded military think tank.

The agency—known as FOI—doesn’t doubt that Russia can invade. But it does question whether Moscow has the ability to secure territory in mainland Ukraine, given the potential size of the area Russia would need to secure—and absent the natural defensive barriers of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in March.

Unlike Crimea, eastern Ukraine would be hard for an occupying force to defend. Russian troops could find it difficult to prevent insurgents from infiltrating their lines.

Es macht natürlich wenig Sinn, Gebiete zu erobern wenn man sie nicht halten kann.