19.03.2025, 19:32
Hat sich genau nichts geändert auf Seiten Russlands seit dem 9. Dezember 2022.
Putin's long war
Putin's long war
Zitat:Unable to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, Putin has evidently decided to destroy it and make it unlivable, as the waves of missile attacks against civilian infrastructure and urban centers suggest. The tragedy of this situation is that the more the Russian army loses on the battlefield, the less likely Putin is to back down from his murderous course. The more Russia’s industry is hamstrung by sanctions and the less access it has to advanced technology to produce “smart” weapons, the more indiscriminate and destructive Russian missile and artillery barrages will be, conducted with “dumb” weapons.
If one looks to the future beyond Putin, Russia’s national security establishment is more than likely to keep Ukraine in its crosshairs as the great strategic prize in the standoff with the West for historical and geopolitical reasons. The misfortune of Ukraine’s geography means that it will always be in a vulnerable position vis-à-vis Russia, absent a fundamental change in Russian domestic politics and strategic culture. And betting on the latter has a low probability of success at best.
A negotiated end to the war that can reliably ensure security for Ukraine and restore durable peace in Europe cannot be achieved with Putin. The odds are that it will not be achieved with the leader or regime that will succeed him, either. The alternative is then for Ukraine’s security to be achieved through a combination of military capabilities sufficient to deter Russia from launching another aggression and security guarantees or assurances provided by its partners and possible future allies.