Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

Dieser Artikel ist wirklich herausragend gut, mit sehr vielen Aspekten die das Kaleidoskop des Krieges ordnen.

Allgemein:

JOMINI über die aktuelle Lage:

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1/ Ukrainian TVD Day 1121: March 17-18, 2025, was marked by a significant escalation in ground and air operations across multiple fronts. In the north, Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from the Kursk region while simultaneously launching a surprise offensive in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.

The Donbas Strategic Direction, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk Fronts, remains heavily contested, with the largest concentration of Russian and Ukrainian forces. In the Southern Strategic Direction, the Russian buildup of forces, which started in December 2024, has now transitioned into a renewed offensive push to the west of Orikhiv. This push is likely to isolate the city and force a Ukrainian withdrawal to the Stepnohirsk-Novopavlivka line.

Air operations have intensified, with Ukraine launching a major drone attack on Russia's Engels airbase, involving 54 drones, while Russia retaliated with massive drone and missile strikes across Ukrainian cities. The naval theater remains relatively quiet.

Diplomatically, discussions around a temporary ceasefire focusing on energy and infrastructure targets are ongoing without concrete resolutions. The conflict continues to have significant economic impacts, exacerbating inflationary pressures and trade disruptions. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with both sides engaged in intense combat operations and strategic maneuvers across multiple regions.

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2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.

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3/ Operational Direction Orikhiv: From February 25 to March 20, 2025, intense combat operations took place in Operational Direction Orikhiv. Russian forces made gradual gains along the Lobkove-Stepove-Mali Shcherbaky line at a significant cost in personnel and equipment. However, Ukrainian troops demonstrated resilience and tactical effectiveness in their defense of the region, successfully thwarting many Russian advances.

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4/ Northern Strategic Direction: Ukrainian operations in the Belgorod area are ongoing. On March 19, a Russian source reported that Ukrainian troops attempted to breach the Belgorod section of the Russian state border at the Demidovka-Grafovka-Priles'e border, using armored vehicles, tanks, and engineering demolition vehicles. Russian forces successfully halted the offensive, and the UAF could not advance further. Meanwhile, the AFU continued to mine the roads remotely. Additionally, a Ukrainian soldier stated on Tuesday, March 18, that a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted to enter Ukraine from the Belgorod region, prompting Ukrainian soldiers to cross into Russian territory to repel the attack. The soldier noted that there was no breakthrough along the Russian border.

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5/ Luhansk Front: Geolocated footage indicates that Russian troops are deploying north of the Nevske settlement. Additionally, Deep State has verified Russian advancements in the vicinity of Nevske.

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6/ Donetsk Front: According to a Russian source, Russian forces have regained control of Kotlyne and are continuing their advance to the northeast and east within the settlement. Ukrainian sources did not report the loss of the village. The source also stated that Russian units had expanded their control zone near Zvirove, attempting to reach the spoil tip.

7/ Operational Outlook: In Sumy Oblast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue transitioning to a defensive posture as they reconstitute OTU Siversk forces. Operations will likely continue in Belgorod Oblast to prevent the deployment of Russian forces from Kursk to other fronts. In the Pokrovsk and Toretskareas, the UAF will continue localized counterattacks to improve tactical positioning. Further gains are possible.

Russian forces in Kursk Oblast will transition to reconstitution activities, while some will be shifted to repeal Ukrainian forces out of Belgorod Oblast. In Luhansk, the 6CAA and 1GTA will seek to expand the OskilSalient north of Kupyansk. In the Pokrovsk and Toretsk areas, Russian forces will continue to seek opportunities to reverse Ukrainian gains. Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia are likely but not certain.