Militärische Lehren aus den Kriegen Israels

[Quintus Fabius]

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-n...cle-857912

A blunder for the history books: How was Tehran so ill-prepared for war with Israel?

Iran’s failure to understand the war it was entering into is a historic failure.

Exakt so wird es uns auch gehen, und wir würden dann selbst gegen die Russen verlieren, obwohl das nur noch drittklassige Gegner sind.

Germany´s failure to understand the war it will be entering into will be a historic failuire.

Iran was caught by surprise when Israel carried out strikes early Friday morning. The war is now in its fourth day, and Tehran continues to be taken by surprise and is unable to respond to the attacks. Why is the Islamic Republic reeling so much from a war that was long discussed and that it threatened for years?

The day before Israel’s attacks, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, had said that the country was “fully prepared” for any scenario. How could he have gotten things so wrong? Was Tehran prepared? It doesn’t appear to have been prepared, as Salami was killed in the first Israeli strikes, along with other key commanders.

Although the Islamic Republic replaced the commanders quickly, it took hours for it to get its ballistic missiles ready for launch. Over the last four days, it has lost some of its missile arsenal and the launchers needed to fire the missiles.

IRAN’S FAILURE to understand the war it was entering into is historic. It had threatened to destroy Israel for years, but it didn’t seem to have gamed out how to do this.

Once Israel weakened Hezbollah in 2024, Tehran didn’t change its calculations. The Lebanese terror group was supposed to provide it with a front line against Israel, part of a multi-front war that included Hamas, the Houthis, and other groups, such as militias in Iraq. Without the Hezbollah front, the Islamic Republic had fewer options.

When the Assad regime fell on December 8, 2024, Iran lost another key ally in the region. Without Assad and Hezbollah, Tehran has no direct border with Israel.

Tehran’s Inability to understand this war is not unique in history. Countries have walked into wars in the past and been surprised by their enemies. For instance, Mexico’s Santa Anna lost in the Texas Revolution and the Mexican-American war in the 19th century. Santa Anna’s arrogance led to defeat.

In addition, Spain entered the Spanish-American War in 1898 assuming it could also withstand the US naval and armed forces. It was surprised when the US defeated the Spanish navy and army in Cuba and the Philippines.

There are other examples. Perhaps the most pertinent to our situation is the historic Persian Empire, which often overestimated its strength. It was defeated by the Greeks several times. The worst came when Alexander of Macedon conquered the Persian Empire and chased its leader to Bactria in Central Asia in the fourth century BCE.

Why did Iran think it could deter Israel after threatening the Jewish state for so long? Did it think the US or others would get Israel to call off an attack? Was Iran so used to being the one threatening that it didn’t think anyone else could threaten it? In the history of war, Iran’s blunder appears to be one for the record books.