Krieg im 21. Jahrhundert

[Quintus Fabius]

Als Sammelstrang über alle möglichen Konzepte und Thesen für die Kriegsführung in den nächsten Dekaden bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts abseits konkreter gegenwertiger Projekte (also nichts was gerade im Bau befindlich oder fest geplant ist).

Als Einleitung über allgemeine Rahmenbedingungen:

https://valdaiclub.com/files/10683/

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1...0802386141

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pu...2849z1.pdf

Für eine Einstimmung:

https://interestingengineering.com/warfa...-to-expect

According to a 2020 report by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the greatest threats to national security are no longer nuclear war or conventional warfare. Instead, cyber warfare, terrorism, foreign influence activities, international cartels, illegal immigration, and natural disasters are the main threats.

By 2050, the growth of distributed systems, quantum computing, 3D printing, cryptocurrencies, biotechnology, and climate change is expected to cause an even more drastic shift. For one, some have argued that the power of nation-states is expected to decline considerably and to give way to autonomous regions, megacities, and private interests.

Simultaneously, technologies like CRISPR gene editing, desktop bioprinters, genetic databases, and AI software will create new opportunities for bioterrorism. With the right training, equipment, and supplies, a larger number of threat actors will be capable of engineering viral bodies or toxins in a lab. As a result, the opportunities for conflict, and the range of protagonists will multiply considerably.

Because of these emerging changes, it is difficult to predict what the battlefields of the future will look like. However, examining emerging technologies and changing dynamics does allow for some tentative conclusions and generalizations to be made.

Among them, the future of warfare is likely to come down to a handful of major factors: new technologies, new threats, the obsolescence of heavy armor, and the replacement of humans by drones, robots, and potentially cyborgs.

Als illustrierendes Beispiel für die Art von Diskussion in diesem Strang:

https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/tag/m...he-threat/

https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/